The United States is on track to see its murder rate fall for the third consecutive year, with one leading analyst suggesting 2025 may witness the lowest per capita homicide rate ever recorded.
“Since President Trump took office, murder rates have plummeted across the entire United States,” said White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt in a statement on Tuesday.
“American families were promised their communities would be safer and President Trump swiftly delivered by vocally being tough on crime, unequivocally backing law enforcement, and standing firm on violent criminals being held to the fullest extent of the law.”
According to FBI records, 2014 had the lowest murder rate since 1960, with 4.46 killings per 100,000 people. In 2023, the rate fell to 5.75 per 100,000 from the 2020 peak of 6.83, a year marked by the COVID-19 pandemic and widespread unrest.
In 2024, the Real-Time Crime Index, a system maintained by AH Datalytics that compiles data from over 400 local law enforcement agencies, reported a drop in the murder rate to 4.97 per 100,000—lower than the FBI’s rates for both 2018 (5.15) and 2019 (5.17).
Data from the first quarter of 2025 shows a further 21.6% decline in murders compared to the same period last year.
“[I]t’s fairly clear that a decline in the direction we’re currently seeing would safely give 2025 the title of lowest US murder rate ever recorded,” wrote independent analyst Jeff Asher in a May 12 Substack post.
President Trump has made crime reduction a key focus, with a particular emphasis on crimes committed by illegal immigrants and a commitment to supporting law enforcement. In April, the White House lawn displayed 100 mugshots of deported illegal immigrants alongside lists of their alleged offenses.
“Good policy fosters good outcomes,” said FBI spokesperson Ben Williamson on Tuesday. “Under this administration’s leadership, our federal law enforcement teams are receiving the tools and support they need to crush violent crime and keep the American people safe, and that’s exactly what they’re doing. We have much more to do, but let good cops be cops, and the results will follow.”
The downward trend is also evident in several major cities.
New York City has seen a 28.2% drop in its year-to-date murder rate. The 112 homicides reported in the first five months of 2025 represent a 34.1% decrease from the same period in 2023, a 41.4% decline compared to 2010, and an 85.7% reduction from 1993.
Philadelphia, long among the nation’s most violent cities, recorded a 14.7% decline in murders so far this year. Chicago has seen a 23% drop, Baltimore 24%, and New Orleans 25%.
