Former President Donald Trump holds a slight edge over President Joe Biden in Pennsylvania, a critical battleground state crucial for Biden’s reelection campaign, based on a recent survey.
The Marist poll, released on Wednesday, shows Trump leading Biden by 2 percentage points among registered voters in the state, with a 47% to 45% margin. Third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. secured 3% support, while Cornel West and the Green Party’s Jill Stein each received 1%.
Among independent voters, who are likely to be pivotal in the election, Trump again leads Biden by 2 percentage points, with a 42% to 40% margin. Kennedy’s support is higher among independents at 8%, with West and Stein each at 3%. This narrow margin with independents poses a concern for Biden, who won this group by 52% to 44% over Trump in 2020, according to national exit polls.
Biden maintains a significant lead among Black voters in Pennsylvania, with 68% support compared to Trump’s 23%. However, this is a drop from the 92% of Black voters Biden garnered nationally in 2020 against Trump’s 7%. Among voters under 45, Biden leads Trump by 2 percentage points, 46% to 44%.
Both Biden and Trump face high negative ratings in Pennsylvania. Over half of those surveyed, 55%, view Biden unfavorably, while 42% view him favorably. Trump’s unfavorable rating is 53%, with a 43% favorable rating.
Pennsylvania, traditionally a Democratic stronghold, has 19 electoral votes that are now highly contested. The state is also a focal point for Senate control. Democratic incumbent Senator Bob Casey is defending his seat against Republican David McCormick. According to the Marist poll, Casey leads McCormick 52% to 46%. Nearly half of Pennsylvania residents, 46%, view Casey favorably, while 31% view him unfavorably. McCormick is viewed favorably by 33% and unfavorably by 31%.
Around a quarter of residents, 23%, are either unfamiliar with Casey or uncertain how to rate him, whereas 37% have either not heard of McCormick or are unsure about him. The poll surveyed 1,277 Pennsylvania adults from June 3-6 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
