Trump and Harris 2024 Prospects Could Hinge on Arizona Ballot Measures

With early voting already in progress, Arizona voters will soon weigh in on two key ballot measures. One initiative aims to enshrine abortion rights following debate over an 1864 state law that banned most abortions. Though the law was repealed earlier this year, its relevance resurfaced after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, which had previously guaranteed a constitutional right to abortion. Another measure would increase law enforcement’s power to crack down on undocumented immigrants.

In Arizona, which shares a 370-mile border with Mexico, former President Donald Trump and Arizona Republicans are relying on concerns over illegal immigration to sway voters in their favor, particularly as Democrats aim to boost turnout among those supporting abortion rights in the first general election since Roe’s fall.

At a rally on Oct. 13 in Yavapai County, Trump and his allies ramped up criticism of Vice President Kamala Harris and the Biden administration’s border policies. Supporters held signs calling for stronger border security, while Stephen Miller, Trump’s former adviser, accused Harris of dismantling Trump-era policies and exacerbating illegal immigration. Miller declared, “Under Donald Trump, every single criminal they apprehended was kicked the hell out. Kamala Harris…used your tax dollars to relocate illegal aliens inside the United States.”

Trump, in his remarks, promised to hire 10,000 more Border Patrol agents if re-elected, calling for increased pay and retention bonuses. National Border Patrol Council President Paul Perez warned that if Harris wins, “every community in this great country is going to go to hell” due to unchecked illegal immigration.

Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) spoke in Tucson on Oct. 9, linking the border crisis to an uptick in crime, drug, and human trafficking. “Kamala Harris bears the responsibility for the failures of the Joe Biden regime,” he said.

A recent poll of likely Arizona voters found 40% citing immigration and border security as the most important issue influencing their vote. Republicans hope images of migrant crossings from 2023 will continue to resonate. Phoenix-based strategist Barrett Marson commented, “Illegal immigration is still a big deal in Arizona.”

Proposition 314, which aims to give law enforcement more power to arrest and prosecute unauthorized migrants, is expected to pass, though some, like Sheriff David Rhodes of Yavapai County, have raised concerns about the lack of resources to enforce the measure effectively.

On the other side of the ballot, Democrats are rallying around a measure that would establish a “fundamental right” to abortion until fetal viability, roughly at 24 weeks, with exceptions for the life or mental health of the mother. More than 577,971 signatures were gathered to put the proposal on the ballot, marking it the most-supported citizen initiative in Arizona’s history.

At a rally on Oct. 10 in Chandler, Harris urged voters to support the abortion rights measure, attacking Trump for appointing Supreme Court justices who voted to overturn Roe v. Wade. She stated, “You have the chance on the state level to vote ‘yes’ on Proposition 139 to protect your right to make your own health care decisions.”

Other prominent Democrats, including First Lady Jill Biden, joined rallies, emphasizing that abortion rights are under threat. “We have to meet this moment as if our rights are at stake because they are,” Biden told supporters.

In contrast, some Arizona voters, like Patty, who spoke before a Trump rally, firmly oppose abortion. “It’s taking a life, and that sums it all up,” she said, expressing that exceptions for rape and incest should be determined by a court rather than used to justify abortion more broadly.

As Arizona voters prepare to decide on these pivotal issues, both immigration and abortion rights are shaping up to be defining concerns, with the outcome likely to send ripples across the national political landscape.