Polls released by the Hill-Emerson College on Thursday, conducted in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, show that Harris leads Trump among independent voters in all these states except Nevada. Among all likely voters, the states are split between the two candidates, with Pennsylvania showing a tie, but every contest remains within the margin of error.
Harris leads Trump with independent voters by 6 points in Arizona, 16 points in Georgia, 3 points in Michigan, 2 points in North Carolina, 8 points in Pennsylvania, and 9 points in Wisconsin. In Nevada, however, Trump holds a 6-point advantage over Harris with independents.
For all likely voters, Trump leads Harris in Arizona (50%-47%), North Carolina (49%-48%), and Wisconsin (49%-48%). Harris, on the other hand, leads Trump in Georgia (49%-48%), Michigan (50%-47%), and Nevada (49%-48%). In Pennsylvania, the two are tied at 48%-48%.
“The race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump continues to be tight, within each state’s margin of error,” said Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, in a statement.
“Harris leads Trump among independents in each state, with the exception of Nevada, where Trump leads 50% to 44%. There is also a stark gender divide, similar to that of 2020,” he added. “In six of the seven swing states, Harris leads Trump among women; however, in Arizona, Trump has a two-point edge on Harris among women voters, a group that broke for Biden by about three points in 2020.”
The poll, released Thursday, follows a Fox News poll from the previous evening that also showed Harris and Trump in a tight race in swing states. That poll indicated Harris with a narrow lead in Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona, while Trump had a slight advantage in North Carolina.
Harris is campaigning in the swing state of Georgia on Thursday alongside her running mate, Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN), while Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) is reportedly holding a fundraiser for Trump in the state. Harris and Walz are also scheduled for a prime-time interview with CNN on Thursday, marking their first sit-down interview of the campaign.
Meanwhile, Trump is campaigning in Michigan and Wisconsin, two critical battleground states, with 68 days remaining until Election Day and early voting set to begin in some states in the coming weeks.
The Cook Political Report has rated all the states polled in Thursday’s survey as “toss-up” contests in the presidential election.
