Iowa pollster Ann Selzer addressed criticisms surrounding her controversial poll, which inaccurately predicted Vice President Kamala Harris leading President-elect Donald Trump in Iowa by three points—a historically red state where Trump ultimately won by over 10 percentage points.
Speaking during a discussion at Iowa Press with moderator Kay Henderson, The Gazette’s Erin Murphy, and Iowa Public Radio’s Katarina Sostaric, Selzer reflected on the backlash and the steps taken to analyze the polling error.
“I’m not here to break any news. If you were hoping that I had landed on exactly why things went wrong, I have not,” Selzer said. “It does sort of awaken me in the middle of the night, and I think, ‘Well, maybe I should check this; this is something that would be very odd if it were to happen.’ But we’ve explored everything. The Des Moines Register, in an unprecedented move for transparency, has put online our cross tabs, our weighting system, and my analysis. We don’t know [what went wrong]. Do I wish I knew? Yes, I wish I knew.”
The poll had gained significant media attention ahead of the election, given Selzer’s reputation for accuracy in previous cycles. The ultimate result, however, was a resounding victory for Trump, who outperformed the poll by more than 10 percentage points. Critics accused Selzer of bias and election interference, which she vehemently denied.
“Let’s deal with the allegations, because I am mystified about what motivation anybody thinks I had to act on [such claims] in such a public poll,” Selzer said. “The allegations I take very seriously. They’re saying this was election interference, which is a crime. The idea that I intentionally set out to deliver this response—when I’ve never done that before—it’s not my ethic.”
Selzer continued, “But to suggest, without a single shred of evidence, that I was in cahoots with somebody, or being paid by somebody—it’s hard to pay too much attention to it, except that they are accusing me of a crime.”
In a follow-up op-ed for the Des Moines Register, Selzer pushed back against claims she had manipulated data or acted on behalf of partisan interests. She raised the possibility that the poll itself may have spurred Republican voters into action.
“The findings from this last poll could actually energize and activate Republican voters who thought they would likely coast to victory. Maybe that’s what happened,” she wrote.
Selzer also announced that she would be transitioning to “other ventures” after the election, signaling a new chapter in her career.
