Jack Ciattarelli, the Republican candidate for governor of New Jersey, unveiled an internal poll on Sunday indicating a tight race against U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ), the Democratic nominee.
The poll shows Ciattarelli ahead by 46 percent to 45 percent in a two-candidate matchup, highlighting a significant 21-point advantage among voters unaffiliated with either major party. This is the first publicly available poll to position Ciattarelli in the lead as the election approaches.
Conducted by National Research, a New Jersey-based firm founded by Adam Geller, the survey sampled 600 likely voters between September 16 and 18, with results shared with the New Jersey Globe.
Political analysts often treat internal polls with skepticism, as campaigns frequently release data that favors their narrative. A recent poll from Quantus Insights showed Sherrill ahead by 10 points, while a Quinnipiac survey last week indicated an 8-point lead for her.
Sherrill has maintained a solid lead in polling averages for several months. Currently, the RealClearPolitics polling average shows her with a lead of 8.8 percentage points.
The New Jersey gubernatorial contest is attracting significant attention this election cycle, as Republicans aim to leverage substantial gains from the upcoming 2024 presidential election.
In 2020, Democrats represented 38 percent of registered voters in New Jersey, compared to 22 percent for Republicans. However, ahead of the 2024 election between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, the Republican share of the electorate has risen to 24 percent, impacting both Democratic and unaffiliated voter segments.
New Jersey surprised many election analysts last November with one of the most pronounced shifts toward the right in the nation. Former Vice President Kamala Harris narrowly defeated President Trump in the state by just under six percentage points, receiving 51.8 percent of the vote to Trump’s 45.9 percent. In contrast, President Biden had won New Jersey in 2020 with 57.3 percent, while Trump garnered only 41.4 percent.
The previous gubernatorial election in New Jersey was marked by a significant polling error, fueling Republican optimism in the state.
A National Research poll from June 2021 found incumbent Democrat Governor Phil Murphy leading Ciattarelli by 12 percentage points. Despite Murphy’s substantial polling lead leading up to Election Day, the race was unexpectedly close, with Murphy ultimately winning by approximately three percentage points, defying predictions of a double-digit victory.
