Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign is in a far stronger position now than during his previous two victorious runs, according to polling data and other evidence. As of now, Trump leads in all seven key battleground states, per Real Clear Politics’ aggregated average. He would need to win just three or four of these states to secure victory; winning all of them would result in a landslide, exceeding even his 2016 electoral success.
A clean sweep could also put traditionally non-battleground states like Virginia, New Hampshire, and even Tim Walz’s Minnesota into play. If current trends continue, Trump could potentially win the popular vote, a significant achievement given the demographic shifts that have solidified Democratic strongholds like California.
Securing both the popular and electoral votes would likely disrupt ongoing legal efforts by groups opposed to Trump, including official actions led by figures such as Attorney General Merrick Garland, who recently launched an “Election Threat Task Force.” This task force, along with state prosecutors like Alvin Bragg and Fani Willis, is seen by Trump’s supporters as part of a coordinated effort to undermine his campaign through legal channels.
Democrats greatly outspend Republicans, have 90% of legacy media & online media on their side, 90% of Hollywood celebs and a massive number of organizers on the ground.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 22, 2024
Frankly, it’s surprising that Republicans win at all! https://t.co/9l1NUILVl1
A Trump victory in both the popular and electoral vote would give him the mandate to govern with greater political capital. His campaign’s momentum has only increased despite efforts to halt his progress, with the grassroots energized by every attempt to thwart him. On major election prediction markets, Trump currently leads by substantial margins, including a 20-point lead on Polymarket and commanding leads in all seven key battleground states.
Should this momentum continue, Republicans are poised to not only win the presidency but also gain control of both the House and Senate. Prediction markets give Republicans a strong chance of sweeping Congress, with Trump leading the presidential race by a significant margin, and Republicans holding the Senate and House by similarly strong numbers.
If Trump is re-elected and the GOP controls both houses, he would have the power to advance his legislative agenda, turning the page on what his supporters see as a disastrous four years under Biden. Even left-leaning outlets like The Economist forecast Trump as the favorite in five out of seven battleground states, corroborated by pollsters like Rasmussen, which shows him leading both nationally and in key states.
Trump’s popularity contrasts sharply with that of Kamala Harris, who faces negative polling on key issues like the economy and immigration. Her campaign has struggled with missteps, and despite her accusations that Trump is “exhausted,” he continues to outpace her on the trail. His robust ground game, particularly in battleground states, has been effective in closing the gap on early voting returns, with Republicans gaining ground in states like North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada.
With early voting showing Republicans making strides in key areas, Trump’s campaign is well-positioned for victory. His supporters are encouraged to vote early and ensure their friends and family do the same, particularly in battleground states. This collective effort, they believe, will secure Trump’s re-election in a clean and fair race, minimizing any potential for fraud or electoral interference.
