What Happened to 6 Million Democrat Votes Between 2020 and 2024?

Last month, Karl Rove published a Wall Street Journal op-ed noting that with 2.2 million California votes still to be counted at the time, “Kamala Harris obtained some 7.5 million fewer votes than Joe Biden had in 2020.” Now that the votes are fully counted, Donald Trump received 77.3 million votes nationwide in 2024, which is 3.06 million more than his 72.25 million in 2020.

In contrast, Harris received 6.27 million fewer votes than Biden. This raises an important question: Where did Biden’s 2020 voters go in 2024?

Even if we assume that half of the missing Democratic votes helped Trump gain his additional 3 million, this still leaves over 3 million unaccounted for. Third-party candidates don’t provide the answer, as their total votes dropped by 656,000 in 2024, declining from 2.27 million in 2020 to 1.62 million.

Looking at Trump’s gains, he improved his vote total in all but 10 states: Alaska (-5,500), Hawaii (-3,000), Indiana (-9,600), Kansas (-12,400), Louisiana (-47,000), Mississippi (-8,800), Oregon (-39,000), Washington (-53,600), West Virginia (-11,900), and Wyoming (-1,000). In these states, Harris’ vote declines were approximately double or more than Trump’s, meaning his losses did not translate into gains for her.

In fact, Harris’ totals fell below Biden’s in 44 states, based on calculations using rounded Federal Election Commission (FEC) results for 2016, 2020, and currently available data for 2024. She outperformed Biden in just six states, one of which—Utah—saw only a slight increase of 2,300 votes.

The five remaining states where Harris outperformed Biden were swing states, but even there, Trump made significant gains and won all six. Here’s what happened in the key swing states:
• Arizona: Harris lost 89,000 votes compared to Biden, while Trump gained 8,600. Third-party votes dropped from 53,000 to 18,300.
• Georgia: Harris gained 74,400 votes, but Trump gained 201,000. Third-party votes dropped from 63,000 to 18,000.
• Michigan: Harris added 12,700 votes, but Trump added a staggering 556,700. Third-party votes were unchanged.
• Nevada: Harris gained just 1,700 votes, while Trump gained 81,200.
• North Carolina: Harris gained 31,100, but Trump gained 139,500. Third-party votes fell from 61,000 to 24,700.
• Pennsylvania: Harris lost 35,000 votes compared to Biden, while Trump gained 165,600. Third-party votes dropped from 80,500 to 34,500.
• Wisconsin: Harris gained 37,200 votes, but Trump gained 87,600. Third-party votes fell from 40,000 to 30,000.

Now let’s examine ten other states for additional context:
• California: Trump gained 75,700 votes, but Harris received 1.83 million fewer than Biden. Third-party votes rose by 100,000.
• Florida: Trump gained 441,000 votes, while Harris lost 614,000. Third-party votes were halved, from 85,000 to 43,000.
• New York: Trump gained 194,100, while Harris lost 625,800. Third-party votes dropped by half, from 83,000 to 47,000.
• Texas: Trump gained 503,100, while Harris dropped 423,750. Third-party votes fell by half.

Overall, it’s unclear where Biden’s 2020 voters went. As Rove speculates, “Maybe they stayed home?” Or could the record Democratic turnout in 2020 have been inflated in some way?

It’s worth noting that Biden’s 2020 total of 81 million votes was an outlier, 15 million more than Hillary Clinton’s 66 million in 2016. At the same time, Trump’s total rose by 11 million from 2016 to 2020 without accusations of inflation.

For additional perspective, Harris’ 75 million votes in 2024 did outperform Clinton’s 66 million in 2016. Harris improved significantly over Clinton in 47 states, performing especially well in Pennsylvania, Texas, and Virginia.

In conclusion, the discrepancies in vote totals between 2020 and 2024 leave open important questions about voter behavior and turnout. Why did Biden’s coalition fall apart, and how did Trump expand his base? These shifts could signal profound changes in electoral dynamics going forward.