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New polling from Michigan suggests independent voters are increasingly leaning toward Donald Trump, with his proposal for a “baby boom” policy gaining traction in the crucial battleground state.
The Co/efficient poll, conducted from Sept. 4 to 6 among 931 likely voters, shows Trump holding 55% of support among Michigan independents, compared to Vice President Kamala Harris’ 30%. This has turned the race for Michigan’s 15 electoral votes into a tie, with both candidates currently at 47%.
One major factor in Trump’s rise among independents appears to be his stance on in-vitro fertilization (IVF). Trump stated, “Under the Trump administration, your government will pay for — or your insurance company will be mandated to pay for — all costs associated with IVF treatment. We want more babies, to put it very nicely. And for the same reason, we will also allow new parents to deduct major newborn expenses from their taxes,” during a Michigan appearance last month.
While the proposal could cost up to $7 billion in taxpayer funds, Michigan voters seem largely receptive. According to the poll, Trump’s plan “to require insurance to cover infertility testing, treatment, and procedures, including IVF, to support families struggling to have children” has boosted his appeal, with 27% of voters saying it makes them more likely to support him, compared to 17% who are less likely.
Super voters—those who have participated in the last four elections—are particularly responsive, with 31% saying they’re more likely to vote for Trump due to his IVF plan, compared to 17% who oppose it. Among women, the IVF proposal has a favorable 11-point margin, with 26% more likely to back Trump, although Harris still leads in overall female support, 56% to 36%.
The IVF policy resonates with 29% of independents, giving Trump a 14-point boost in that key demographic. The proposal is also popular among religious groups, with a +11 rating among Protestants and +9 among Catholics. However, Jewish voters appear less enthusiastic, with 33% saying they are less likely to vote for Trump due to the IVF plan, while only 11% feel more inclined to support him.
