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Election analysts were stunned on Sunday when The New York Times and Sienna College unveiled a poll that has shifted the narrative of the presidential race. Kamala Harris, who entered the race in July after sidelining Joe Biden, had consistently led in most polls, with the common belief being that she maintained a slim but steady advantage. However, this new poll shows Trump outperforming Harris in both a head-to-head matchup and a multi-candidate field.
Some may attempt to challenge the crosstabs, which are linked in the second post above, but such efforts are likely to appear desperate. I’m not a fan of “un-skewing polls” or manipulating crosstab data. I believe in accepting a poll’s results, adding its topline to the average, and moving forward. When people start picking apart crosstabs or trying to “re-weight” a poll, they’re playing a risky game and setting themselves up for disappointment.
That being said, if you’re looking for realistic crosstabs to trust a poll, it’s hard to find one in recent months that appears more credible than this one. This is particularly true when it comes to the voting preferences of white, black, and Hispanic voters. If the poll had shown Trump securing 20 percent of the black vote, that might raise concerns, but 13 percent is entirely plausible, especially given the progress he’s made with black men. The same goes for the other demographic categories. From education level to age, everything seems believable.
What’s fueling Trump’s rise? It seems that low-propensity voters are giving him the edge. He leads Harris among “did not vote in 2020” respondents, 49 to 40 percent. This highlights the critical need for Republicans to ensure voter turnout. If those voters don’t show up, Harris could still pull off a win.
Finally, Trump’s favorable ratings provide him with a significant boost. In previous polls, Harris inexplicably went from being one of the most disliked politicians in recent memory to polling at or above 50 percent, merely by entering the race. The favorability gap in this latest poll seems far more realistic.
Tuesday’s debate stakes have now skyrocketed. Harris won’t be able to take a passive approach, increasing the likelihood of a major misstep. Trump, on the other hand, now has every reason to maintain the strategy he employed in the first debate: Let Harris unravel on her own. He doesn’t need a knockout performance—he just needs to let Harris speak. She’ll handle the rest.
