Former President Donald Trump has been closely trailing Vice President Kamala Harris since she became the Democratic nominee in July, though he typically stayed within the margin of error. However, according to NBC News polling released on Oct. 13, they are now tied at 48% each, with a margin of error of 3.1 points. Four percent of respondents remain undecided.
This shift is concerning for Harris, who held a lead in the September poll with 49% of the vote compared to Trump’s 44%. The new data follows the trend of other polls this week showing Harris’s summer momentum fading.
“As summer has turned to fall, any signs of momentum for Kamala Harris have stopped,” said Jeff Horwitt, a Democratic pollster who conducted the NBC poll alongside Republican pollster Bill McInturff.
Harris’s campaign has expressed concerns about the gender gap between the candidates — she has strong support from women but has been losing ground among men. Her surrogates, including former President Barack Obama, have criticized Black men specifically for “coming up with all kinds of reasons and excuses” not to support the vice president.
Harris holds a 14-point lead over Trump among women, while Trump leads Harris by 16 points among men. Both campaigns have launched media strategies to address this divide. Harris appeared on the “Call Her Daddy” podcast, which primarily targets women, as well as “The Late Show with Stephen Colbert,” where she shared a drink on-air, seemingly to appeal to male voters. Meanwhile, her running mate, Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN), has been attending football games, meeting with manufacturing workers, and even participating in a Twitch stream for “World of Warcraft.”
Trump, meanwhile, has appeared on several male-dominated podcasts, including shows hosted by Theo Von, Logan Paul, and the Nelk Boys. However, next week Trump will participate in a town hall on Fox News with Harris Faulkner, in front of a female-only audience, to address issues important to women voters.
In terms of favorability, both Trump and Harris are tied at 43% positive ratings. This is particularly concerning for Harris, whose popularity surged from 32% in July to 48% in September after becoming the nominee. The recent decline is attributed to waning support among young and independent voters. Trump, meanwhile, is seeing his highest positivity ratings since leaving office.
On key issues, Harris performs better on abortion, with 19% more voters saying she would handle the issue better. She also leads by 10 points on healthcare. However, Trump dominates on border security, the Middle East, and cost of living, holding majorities of 25, 18, and 11 points, respectively.
In a positive note for Harris, more voters believe she represents change compared to Trump, 45% to 40%. However, Republicans continue to tie her to President Joe Biden’s policies, framing her as an incumbent. Harris’s campaign has had to walk a fine line, trying to distance herself from Biden’s administration while maintaining respect for her role within it.
