Surveys That Place Trump Behind Are Misleading

For several months, the public has been exposed to various types of polls, including national, state, and issue polls. However, the critical question remains: Who is winning the presidential race, Trump or Biden? Over the last two months, the two presumptive candidates have frequently traded the lead, with Trump generally holding a slight edge. Therefore, the race is so tight that it’s difficult to definitively declare who is ahead on the national ballot test. Trump seems to have held a narrow lead since February.

CNN shows Trump ahead by an unusual 6-point margin, although their polling has been contentious. Essentially, while polls are shifting, voter preferences appear steady. Differences in poll results and Biden’s lead in some are related to pollsters’ methods and interpretations, as well as the intricacies of polling and sampling.

Accurate polling requires a credible pollster to build a representative sample of voters, balancing Republicans, Democrats, and Independents; gender, and various geographic and demographic factors to accurately reflect voter intentions and motivations. However, any imbalance in these factors can lead to skewed results.

Demographic data is available from the American Community Survey, providing a baseline for gender, age, income, ethnic, and geographic distribution. However, other factors such as age, income, and education levels influence voter turnout, with higher values correlating to increased likelihood of voting.

Pollsters use exit poll data to adjust for higher proportions of older, wealthier, and more educated voters, though this approach is not foolproof. The 2016 polls were off due to missing a surge in high school-educated voters who favored Trump.

Overall, demographics typically do not lead to significant disparities in polling results. Except for Black voters who favor Biden, most other demographic groups show relatively similar preferences. Recent polling indicates close races among different age groups for both candidates, with significant support for Biden among Black voters.

However, partisan divisions play a substantial role in polling outcomes. Trump holds an 88% advantage among Republicans, while Biden is supported by 86% of Democrats. These skewed figures mean the partisan makeup of any poll can greatly impact the ballot test.

Voter turnout varies between the parties over recent elections, with Democrats holding advantages in some past cycles. However, the gap has been narrowing, suggesting that Democrats might not retain the edge they had in earlier elections.

The Republican National Committee faces organizational issues, and state parties are struggling with leadership and funding challenges. Nevertheless, voter participation in presidential elections is typically high without extensive prompting, so Republican struggles may not significantly impact turnout.

RealClearPolitics’ summary shows that polls presenting Trump behind tend to oversample Democrats. Marist Poll and Quinnipiac Poll, for instance, favor Biden but assume a Democratic turnout advantage. Other polls like Morning Consult and Ipsos show Biden in the lead, but they don’t reveal their partisan sampling.

Among the Trump-favorable polls, only one CNN poll projects a Republican turnout advantage, albeit just by one point. Other polls such as NBC, Emerson, and HarrisX place Trump ahead, with differing turnout assumptions.

Some polling results seem inconsistent, such as Rasmussen’s plus-8 for Trump, contrasting with their prior plus-4 for Biden. Even reputable pollsters sometimes yield unexpected results. CNN’s outsized 6-point lead for Trump has also faced criticism.

For Trump, most polls present encouraging signs, showing Biden’s lead often linked to oversampling Democratic voters. Some polls even predict a Democratic turnout advantage yet still place Trump in the lead. In a tight race, even minor changes can determine the outcome between winning and losing.