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New polling indicates growing Democratic support in three key states crucial to Kamala Harris’ White House bid: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
A Quinnipiac survey released Wednesday shows Harris ahead in all three pivotal ‘blue wall’ states. She leads former President Donald Trump in Michigan 50% to 45% among 905 likely voters, with Green Party candidate Jill Stein taking 2%. This 5-point lead surpasses her average of 0.7% in the state, which has 15 electoral votes. If sustained, Harris would outperform Biden’s 2020 victory margin of around 30,000 votes in Michigan.
Harris has a slight advantage with Michigan independents, 47% to 44%, and strong support from Democrats at 98%, while Trump has 94% backing from Republicans.
In Pennsylvania, with its 19 electoral votes, Harris has her best showing of the cycle. She leads 51% to 45% among 1,334 likely voters, with Stein and Libertarian Chase Oliver each at 1%. A 48% to 43% lead with independents and 95% of Democrats supporting her boosts her position, while Trump has 91% Republican backing. Harris’ average lead in Pennsylvania polling is 0.6%, indicating this survey may be an outlier. In 2020, Biden won the state by about 80,000 votes.
In Wisconsin, where 10 electoral votes are at stake, Harris holds a narrow lead, 48% to 47%, among 1,075 likely voters, with Oliver at 1%. Harris and Trump are tied with independents at 46% each. The former president enjoys slightly higher party support than Harris, with 95% of Republicans backing him compared to 94% of Democrats for Harris.
On specific issues, voters in these battlegrounds view Trump as stronger on the economy and immigration, while Harris is seen as stronger on abortion rights, preserving democracy, and crisis management.
The survey also touched on down-ballot races where Republicans have ground to cover. In Michigan, Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin leads former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers in the Senate race, 51% to 46%. In Wisconsin, Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin is ahead of Republican challenger Eric Hovde, 51% to 47%.
Polling also suggests that early returns on election night may not reflect the final outcome. While a majority of Election Day voters plan to vote for Trump, Harris appears poised to dominate in absentee ballots.
