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The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has revealed that the Biden administration significantly inflated employment statistics across 25 states during the second quarter of 2024, according to its most recent analysis. While the Biden administration reported a 1.8% national increase in employment, the Fed found a more modest 1.1% growth, noting discrepancies of 1.2 to 1.9 percentage points—translating to an overestimation of more than 3 million jobs nationwide.
In contrast, data from the Philadelphia Fed during the second quarter of 2023 differed from national statistics by only 0.1%, highlighting the Fed’s historical accuracy in tracking employment figures. Moreover, deviations in employment statistics were minimal throughout 2023 and earlier in 2024. The last time such substantial discrepancies occurred was during the midterm election cycle in 2022.
While there is no direct evidence to prove intentional manipulation, the timing of these inflated figures—so close to the election—raises questions.
Despite the Biden administration’s glowing economic narrative, many Americans didn’t feel the positive effects of these purported job gains. A report by ZipRecruiter revealed that job seekers in the second quarter of 2024 were more skeptical of finding work than at any other point in the previous two years. Similarly, a New York Fed survey in July 2024 found that 4.4% of employees expected to lose their jobs, up from 3.9% the previous year.
Economic concerns remain front and center for voters. According to polls, 52% of voters ranked the economy as “extremely important” to their decisions, while another 38% called it “very important.” Voters favoring Trump expressed heightened dissatisfaction with Biden’s handling of the economy.
Even though job numbers are eventually corrected to reflect actual conditions, the overestimated figures can significantly influence voter perceptions during an election year. This isn’t the first time Biden’s administration has faced scrutiny over employment data. Between March 2023 and March 2024, it overstated job creation by 818,000—a revision that reduced 12-month job growth from 2.9 million to 2.1 million and monthly averages from 242,000 to 174,000.
President-elect Donald Trump described these discrepancies as intentional attempts to manipulate public perception. “MASSIVE SCANDAL! The Harris-Biden Administration has been caught fraudulently manipulating Job Statistics to hide the true extent of the Economic Ruin they have inflicted upon America,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. He added that even the revised numbers understated the damage.
Further reports supported Trump’s claims of a weakened job market, revealing that the U.S. had 1 million fewer available jobs compared to prior years.
Despite these glaring errors, some economists defended the Biden administration. ZipRecruiter’s Chief Economist Julia Pollak denied allegations of bias or conspiracy. “Is the Bureau of Labor Statistics a massive pro-Biden Admin shill? And are today’s revisions to labor statistics evidence of huge conspiracy to inflate the economic data? The answer is a declarative NO,” she wrote on X.
Still, the timing and nature of these repeated statistical overestimations remain questionable, fueling skepticism about whether these errors are simply coincidences.
