Republicans Leading Democrats in Early Voting in Key Battleground State: Data Shows

Republicans may be surpassing Democrats in early in-person voting this year in Virginia, though Democrats seem to be ahead in mail-in ballot submissions, according to data from the nonprofit Virginia Public Access Project.

With just two weeks remaining before the presidential election, it’s estimated that Republicans have cast 46.5% of early in-person ballots, while Democrats likely account for 45.5%.

Because Virginia does not require voters to register by party, and ballots are not counted until election day, these estimates are based on voter IDs from the Virginia Daily Absentee List and data from a political data firm. The party affiliation for 8% of ballots remains unknown.

Democrats appear to have submitted 63.6% of mail-in ballots, compared to 25.8% from Republicans, with 10.6% of party affiliations unknown.

Virginia’s elections occur annually, and since 2021, the Virginia Public Access Project has tracked the party breakdown for early in-person and mail-in ballots. This presidential election year marks the first time Republicans may have outpaced Democrats in early in-person voting.

In 2021 and 2022, 16 days out from the election, Democrats made up over 60% of early in-person votes, while Republicans were at roughly 30%.

By 2023, Republicans increased their share to about 40%, but Democrats still led with 55.4%.

Mail-in voting trends, meanwhile, have remained fairly steady since 2021. Democrats have consistently submitted about 65% of mail-in ballots by this point each year, with Republicans submitting 20-25%. This year, Republican mail-in ballots stand at 25.8%, slightly below last year’s 26.4%.