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A recent political analysis indicates that the 2024 general election may hinge on four states: Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
The Cook Political Report, which was published on Thursday, predicts a potential rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.
Political analyst Amy Walter points out that these four states, considered as “toss-up” states, hold a crucial 56 Electoral College votes, making the playing field for 2024 very narrow.
The report further suggests that if we exclude these four “toss-up” states, Republicans are likely to secure 235 Electoral College votes, while Democrats are projected to gain 247.
Additionally, Michigan and Nevada lean Democrat, while Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and a single-vote district in Nebraska are likely to vote blue.
On the other hand, North Carolina leans Republican, with Florida, Texas, and a single-vote district in Maine likely voting red, as per the Daily Caller’s interpretation of the report.
Our 2024 Electoral College ratings are now available.
— Cook Political Report (@CookPolitical) July 27, 2023
The race for the 2024 presidential contest begins on a very narrow playing field, with just four states considered Toss Ups: PA, WI, AZ and GA.
Read @amyewalter's analysis: https://t.co/jshH79cgST
Walter wrote: “North Carolina is to Democrats what Nevada is to Republicans: tantalizingly competitive, but still just out of reach.”
Our 2024 Electoral College ratings are now available.
— Cook Political Report (@CookPolitical) July 27, 2023
The race for the 2024 presidential contest begins on a very narrow playing field, with just four states considered Toss Ups: PA, WI, AZ and GA.
Read @amyewalter's analysis: https://t.co/jshH79cgST
David Wasserman, The Cook Political Report’s editor, emphasized that the election is likely to be determined by just four states, which collectively hold 61 electoral votes, making it an exceptionally compact electoral map. It’s worth noting that in the 2020 election, President Biden successfully carried all four of these states.
The Cook Political Report is widely recognized for its non-partisan stance and reputation for accurate election analysis and forecasts. Their evaluations are based on various factors, including the political landscape, candidates’ strengths, and the overall political environment.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball also released their predictions for the 2024 Electoral College in late June, foreseeing a matchup between Biden and Trump with four decisive states. However, their list of toss-up states slightly differed, with Nevada being identified as one of them instead of Pennsylvania.
On the other hand, RealClearPolitics (RCP) polling indicates a close match-up between Biden and Trump, with Biden having a slight edge, winning the general election by about one point.
As both candidates face controversies, their political futures remain uncertain.
