After Vice President Kamala Harris became the presumptive Democratic nominee following President Joe Biden’s mid-July decision to step down from leading the ticket in 2024, many political experts made a number of assumptions. One expectation was a boost in national polls for the Democrats and a return of contested blue states to safe blue status. Virginia was one such state, where several polls had shown former President Donald Trump within the margin of error of Biden, despite Biden having won the state comfortably in 2020.
NEW: Biden is losing critical support in key battlegrounds, according to leaked data from a premier Democratic firm, and putting previously noncompetitive states in play. (Plus: he’s polling behind Kamala Harris for the first time.)@PeterHamby reports. https://t.co/Ywp4Fvt4PY
— Puck (@PuckNews) July 2, 2024
While Democrats have seen a predicted recovery in national polls, Virginia remains a more complex issue, as highlighted by a recent survey.
A poll of 756 likely voters in Virginia, conducted by the Center for Leadership and Media Studies at the University of Mary Washington, showed Harris leading by just two points in a two-way race and by one point when additional candidates were included — both within the 3.7 percent margin of error.
“Harris has the support of 47 percent of 756 Virginia likely voters, as compared to 46 percent favoring Trump in the survey, which includes 1,000 adult respondents and was conducted for UMW’s Center for Leadership and Media Studies by Research America Inc. Sept. 3-9,” a media release stated.
“Several third party and independent candidates received a total of four percent support in the poll, while the remaining likely voters said they were undecided.
“In a question that asked likely voters only about the major party nominees, the results also remained well within the margin of error: 48 percent favored Harris and 46 preferred Trump.”
“This new survey suggests Virginia should be getting a much closer look from both presidential campaigns,” said Stephen J. Farnsworth, professor of political science at the University of Mary Washington and director of the Center for Leadership and Media Studies, in the release. “Virginia may deserve to be treated as a ‘swing state’ once again this year.”
📊 VIRGINIA poll by University of Mary Washington
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 20, 2024
2-WAY
🟦 Harris: 48%
🟥 Trump: 46%
—
FULL FIELD
🟦 Harris: 47%
🟥 Trump: 46%
🟨 RFK Jr: 2%
🟪 Other: 2%
——
Senate
🟦 Tim Kaine (inc): 49%
🟥 Hung Cao: 43%
🟪 Other: 2%
—
Sept. 3-9 | 756 LV | ±3.7%https://t.co/1cseQv3DYe
Virginia hasn’t been considered a “swing state” since the George W. Bush era. Barack Obama won the state by over 6 points in 2008 and around 4 points in 2012, Hillary Clinton won by over 5 points in 2016, and Biden by over 10 points in 2020.
This is only slightly better than the situation in May, when a Roanoke College poll showed Trump and Biden tied at 42 percent. It’s worth noting that the Roanoke poll was conducted before Biden’s poor performance in the June 27 debate, and the University of Mary Washington poll was taken before the Sept. 10 debate where Trump faced three moderators and Harris.
However, this poll reveals a trend: Harris’ numbers resemble Hillary Clinton’s in 2016 more than Joe Biden’s in 2020 — they are solid, but given the media attention and scrutiny on Trump, they should be stronger, especially in states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
If we hypothetically assume Trump wins Virginia — a long shot, but not impossible — Harris would need to secure Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and one of three Sun Belt states that have leaned toward Trump — Arizona, Georgia, or North Carolina — to win.
Should Trump carry Virginia, it would indicate broader dissatisfaction with the Biden-Harris administration, potentially leading to a sweep of those states and Pennsylvania. More likely, however, this scenario suggests that more campaign resources will need to be redirected to a state that should have been secured, detracting from efforts in Pennsylvania or any of the three Sun Belt states where Harris has a chance.
In any case, this is not a positive development for the Democratic ticket — and it serves as a reminder that no amount of “joy” and “vibes” can make Americans forget what the Biden-Harris administration has done for the country.
