Kamala Harris Faces an Uphill Battle According to Historical Trends

Does it matter that a sitting vice president has won the presidency only once in the last 188 years? While many vice presidents have eventually become president, most have done so after leaving office. George H.W. Bush in 1988 is the only sitting vice president to win the presidency since Martin Van Buren in 1836.

Other vice presidents who became president did so following the death of the sitting president. For instance, Richard Nixon and Al Gore both ran for president while serving as vice president and were defeated, though Nixon won eight years later.

Why do sitting vice presidents struggle to win on their own? As Washington Post columnist Marc Thiessen suggests, it’s because most voters don’t want a third term of the current administration. Voters wanted a third Ronald Reagan term in 1988, which helped Bush win, but when he failed to deliver, he lost his reelection bid. In 1836, voters sought continuity with Andrew Jackson’s policies, leading to Van Buren’s victory. He, too, lost when he sought a second term.

For Kamala Harris, all the optimism in the world won’t make voters forget who was president while she served as vice president. As Thiessen notes, “Bush succeeded where other modern vice presidents failed for one simple reason: Americans wanted a third Reagan term. Today, no one wants another Biden term.”

When Reagan left office, he had a 63% approval rating, while Biden currently has a 57% disapproval rating. When Bush ran in 1988, the economy was strong, inflation was under control, and the world was relatively peaceful. Today, the economy is struggling under high inflation and interest rates, and global conflicts are escalating, with wars raging on two continents and U.S. troops facing attacks in the Middle East.

Harris will have to run on this record. Falling inflation won’t erase the memory of 9% inflation in 2022, and even a potential interest rate cut won’t help those burdened with high mortgage payments due to recent rate hikes.

Harris has distanced herself from the administration’s failed border policies, which only shifted when it became clear that the influx of 8 million illegal immigrants would harm Democrats in 2024. Despite this, she is now trying to deny ever being the administration’s “border czar,” which itself is an acknowledgment of the failure of Biden’s border policies. If it had been a success, she would be proudly wearing the title. But if she wants to differentiate herself, she must explain what she would have done differently, even though her policies are more radical than Biden’s. In 2019, she advocated for decriminalizing illegal border crossings and providing taxpayer-funded healthcare for illegal migrants, which would have increased the incentive for illegal entry.

Harris is attempting to present herself as a “new, fresh face” in contrast to Donald Trump, with the media supporting this narrative. Trump’s challenge will be to firmly associate Harris with Biden’s policies. He will need to show message discipline to break through the negative media coverage and remind voters of the state of the country under Biden.