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Republican voters in New Jersey are turning out in larger numbers than they did in 2021, reflecting a heightened motivation to participate in the electoral process.
On Saturday, the first day of nine for early voting in New Jersey, Democrats edged out Republicans in in-person turnout, garnering 42 percent compared to 39 percent for the GOP, while 19 percent of voters were affiliated with other parties.
According to data from Michael Pruser of DecisionDesk HQ, Democrats had a slight in-person lead of 2,524 votes, a significant reduction from the 26,717 advantage they had in 2021.
“This was the first of nine days of in-person, early voting. An eternity is still outstanding,” noted Micah Rasmussen, Director of the Rebovich Institute for NJ Politics at Rider University. “However, if the GOP fails to gain ground on the Democrats, they will head into Election Day facing a deficit of 275,000 votes.”
It is crucial to highlight that these statistics reflect voter party affiliation and do not indicate support for GOP candidate Jack Ciattarelli or Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ).
“Of the nearly 550,000 voters who have cast ballots so far, either through mail-in ballots or early in-person voting, 60% were Democrats, 24% were Republicans, and 16% had another affiliation,” reported The New York Post. “By the conclusion of the 2021 race, over 780,000 Garden State residents voted early in-person or via mail, with 22% being Republicans, 58% Democrats, and 20% from other parties.”
In the 2021 off-year election, Ciattarelli exceeded expectations by coming within 3 percentage points of then-Governor Phil Murphy, a Democrat, outperforming predictions by 5 percentage points. The latest aggregate from RealClearPolitics shows Sherrill leading by 4.1 percentage points with just under two weeks remaining in the campaign.
Political analysts emphasize that the early voting data suggests Republicans in New Jersey remain highly motivated in this off-year election, which bodes well for the party’s prospects.
Some analysts predict that if this trend continues, next year’s midterm elections might favor Republicans more than previously expected.
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