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RealClearPolitics projected on Thursday that New Hampshire is now a tossup state after previously leaning toward Vice President Kamala Harris.
This shift “suggests former President Donald Trump is expanding his path to victory” by competing with Harris in a state experts anticipated she would win. Meanwhile, “the same is not true for Harris, who does not seem to be making any inroads into solid red states.”
The shift occurred after a New Hampshire Journal/Praecones Analytica poll revealed Trump leading Harris by 0.4 points (50.2% to 49.8%). “There’s a reason Kamala Harris has been spending money in New Hampshire. She’s on defense and knows President Trump is on the path to victory,” said Trump national campaign spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt in a statement.
Newsweek highlighted the race dynamics in the Granite State:
Polling aggregators and individual polls still place Harris slightly ahead, though Trump is making gains. For instance, FiveThirtyEight shows Harris with a 5.1-point lead in New Hampshire, down from 7 points at the start of October. Similarly, Nate Silver’s tracker has Harris 5.2 points ahead, with Trump gaining 2.2 points in the last month.
Harris has led every individual poll in New Hampshire since becoming the Democratic nominee, aside from the recent New Hampshire Journal/Praecones Analytica poll. The latest Dartmouth Poll, conducted October 5-18, showed Harris leading Trump by 20.8 points (58.5% to 37.7%) among 2,211 registered New Hampshire voters.
Currently, Harris and Trump are virtually tied across all seven swing states, though polling has less impact with just five days remaining until Election Day.
