However, the visit also allows her to support Democrats in a purple state that lost its first-in-the-nation status earlier this year and possibly fend off the shadow of Hillary Clinton’s failed 2016 presidential bid.
Democrats have emphasized their enthusiasm for Harris’s visit, especially after last month’s convention in Chicago and in anticipation of the upcoming presidential debate against Trump.
“We are just so excited, but that’s because we’re Democrats,” New Hampshire Democratic state Sen. David Watters told the Washington Examiner. “She believes that Democrats should ask for every vote and understand what’s at stake for our democracy, and this is an important state for that.”
According to a campaign official, Harris is expected to propose a tenfold increase in the small business tax deduction for startup expenses, raising it from $5,000 to $50,000, to address the average startup cost of $40,000. She will also advocate for policies that reduce red tape to simplify tax filing for small business owners and lower barriers to obtaining occupational licenses.
The vice president is also anticipated to set a goal of 25 million new small business applications in her first four years in office, surpassing the 19 million applications during the Biden administration. This follows Harris’s previous economic proposals, which included cutting taxes for the middle class and reducing grocery costs.
“The message now about working families, about the middle class, and particularly about small businesses—New Hampshire is just really an ideal place for that message,” said Watters. “So that’s why she’s back.”
Some New Hampshire experts suggest Harris’s visit might also be related to the controversy surrounding the state after President Joe Biden and the Democratic National Committee stripped it of its first-place status in the primary calendar.
However, New Hampshire Secretary of State David Scanlan defied the Democratic Party’s wishes by setting the primary for Jan. 23, 2024, ahead of South Carolina’s, in accordance with a 1975 law requiring New Hampshire to hold the nation’s first primary. Biden opted not to compete in the race, and his allies successfully staged a write-in campaign.
“It’s a state that is going to have a very competitive gubernatorial race, and she may want to build some points here if she wins in 2024 and wants to seek reelection in 2028,” said Linda Fowler, a political scientist at Dartmouth University, regarding Harris’s visit. “The Democratic Party here was very angry with Biden because we lost our first-in-the-nation status. So I think this may be politics in the sense of restoring ties with a local party.”
Watters, a key leader in the Biden write-in campaign, claimed that state Democrats were no longer upset about the loss of status, even during the primary.
“I really think even at the time of the primary, those tensions were all gone, and we felt very good about that effort,” he said.
“And frankly, I think that the reason why our delegation met that very day that President Biden made his decision [to suspend his campaign] and unanimously voted to endorse Harris was that we understand the extraordinary work that the president did, but also that Vice President Harris—all the conversations in the weeks before that moment had been that she really is our strongest candidate,” Watters continued.
Others believe Harris’s visit to New Hampshire, along with her running mate’s, Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN), campaigning in Virginia, is an effort to avoid repeating Clinton’s mistake of not visiting Wisconsin during the 2016 campaign, which cost her the election to Trump.
“I think that they’re scared of the ghost of Hillary Clinton in Wisconsin,” said Sean Spicer, a former Trump White House press secretary, during The Morning Meeting. “I have a feeling that they’d rather be making the case that they’re expanding the map and that they’re keeping things off the board.”
Trump criticized Harris’s arrival in New Hampshire, her economic policies as vice president, and Democrats devaluing the state in its primary schedule on Truth Social.
“Comrade Kamala Harris sees there are problems for her campaign in New Hampshire because of the fact that they disrespected it in their primary and never showed up,” he wrote. “Additionally, the cost of living in New Hampshire is through the roof, their energy bills are some of the highest in the country, and their housing market is the most unaffordable in history. I protected New Hampshire’s First-In-The-Nation Primary and ALWAYS will!”
Christopher Galdieri, a political scientist at Saint Anselm College in Manchester, New Hampshire, suggested that Harris’s visit is a move to strengthen support in a race that will be decided by a handful of states.
“We are sort of at the top of the second tier of battleground states. We’re not where we were in, say, 2008 (or) 2012,” said Galdieri. “But I think it’s just making sure you make the appearance. She has not been here as the nominee, so I think it’s also useful for her to visit the state for that reason as well.”
A volunteer for the Trump campaign was dismissed after claiming New Hampshire was not winnable for the GOP.
According to the Boston Globe, Tom Mountain, a former Massachusetts Republican Party vice chairman, emailed Trump campaign volunteers saying that “the campaign has determined that New Hampshire is no longer a battleground state” and that Trump is “sure to lose by an even higher margin” in New Hampshire than in 2016 and 2020. Mountain also suggested Pennsylvania as a state more deserving of resources.
A 538 poll average of New Hampshire shows Harris leading Trump by roughly seven percentage points, 50.1% to 43.2%, while a RealClearPolitics poll average also shows Harris leading Trump by five percentage points, 50.7% to 45.7%. The Cook Political Report rates the state as “likely Democratic.”
“New Hampshire has what I think is probably a very favorable electorate for Harris,” said Galdieri. “It is lots of upscale, highly educated, white voters. So I think it’s a very particular segment of the Democratic electorate. So I think it’s going to be pretty friendly territory.”
Across the state, Democrats have mobilized more than 100 campaign staffers in 17 coordinated field offices, compared to the one field office opened by the Trump campaign.
Following a trend seen in other battleground states, Democrats in New Hampshire saw a 415% increase in event attendance and a 480% increase in volunteer shifts after Harris replaced Biden as the Democratic presidential nominee.
Although Trump easily won the New Hampshire GOP primary earlier this year, the state remained a key target for Republican Nikki Haley, who tried to stage a comeback against the former president. Trump defeated Haley by 11 percentage points, 54.3% to 43.3%.
These disaffected Haley voters could potentially switch to Harris in November, along with members of the Republicans for Harris group that has emerged in the state. Former Republican Rep. Joe Walsh campaigned for Harris in the state last week.
With just over 60 days until Election Day, time is running short for both Harris and Trump, but a visit to New Hampshire remains advantageous, said Fowler.
“So there are two things going on here. One is to expand the playing field, make the Republicans fight for everything,” said Fowler. “And the other is to not take states that look like they’re in the blue column — not take those for granted.
