Election Forecaster Reveals Candidate’s Chances Surging in ‘Closest Race in 150 Years’

Donald Trump’s chances of defeating Kamala Harris in the 2024 general election have improved in recent days following a series of favorable polls, according to a leading election forecaster.

Although Harris remains the favorite in 538’s latest projection, Trump has been gaining ground with just 41 days remaining before Election Day.

Formerly known as FiveThirtyEight, 538 now gives Harris a 55-in-100 chance of winning the Electoral College, while Trump’s odds have increased to 45-in-100, up from 39-in-September.

This shift follows a Quinnipiac Poll showing Trump leading Harris by one percent nationwide and a New York Times/Siena survey indicating Trump’s lead in key Sun Belt states like Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.

Harris is campaigning in Pittsburgh today to promote her manufacturing plan across the U.S., just 24 hours after Trump delivered a similar speech in Savannah.

Trump’s rising chances have been bolstered by a strong series of polls, as reported by 538. Since September, Trump has seen a 10 percent increase in his odds of winning the electoral college.

Though Harris still holds a 55 percent chance of victory, Trump’s odds have risen from 39 to 45 percent as of the latest forecast.

538’s G. Elliott Morris attributes Trump’s improvement to a national Quinnipiac Poll showing him narrowly ahead of Harris and a New York Times/Siena Poll that puts him in the lead in critical swing states like Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia.

“That’s barely better than a coin flip!” Morris added, noting that the slim margins in key states have made this one of the closest presidential races in decades — potentially the tightest in nearly 150 years.

Meanwhile, former Speaker Nancy Pelosi had a heated exchange with CNN’s Jake Tapper after he mentioned comments about Vice President Kamala Harris’s cognitive abilities.

“Donald Trump’s saying that Kamala Harris has bigger cognitive problems than Joe Biden,” Tapper began, only for Pelosi to cut him off abruptly: “Why would you even cover that?”

In another development, Donald Trump claimed he received intelligence briefings about “real and specific threats” from Iran to assassinate him. The Trump campaign released a statement Tuesday night describing the threats as part of a broader effort to destabilize the U.S.

Campaign Communications Director Steven Cheung issued the bulletin, stating that Trump had been briefed on the plot. This comes shortly after reports of Iranian “malicious cyber actors” emailing President Biden’s campaign with stolen information from Trump’s campaign. It also follows two failed assassination attempts on Trump, the most recent occurring earlier this month.