A leading nonpartisan political handicapper has shifted five crucial swing states and one key congressional district toward former President Trump in his 2024 election rematch with President Biden. The Cook Report’s adjustment comes in response to new polling following Biden’s poor debate performance against Trump two weeks ago.
Cook Report publisher and editor-in-chief Amy Walter reclassified Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada from toss-up to lean Republican, moved Minnesota and New Hampshire from likely Democrat to lean Democrat, and changed Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District from likely to lean Democrat. Nebraska and Maine are unique in that they divide their electoral votes by congressional district.
Dave Wasserman, a longtime Cook Report analyst, noted that the idea of the presidential race being a toss-up was unlikely even before the debate. He now sees Trump with a clear advantage over Biden and a more plausible path to 270 electoral votes.
Wasserman highlighted that Biden’s post-debate dip is the year’s most significant polling shift, with Trump leading Biden 47%-44% in the Cook Report’s new national polling average, released early Wednesday. He pointed out that Trump’s current support among Black and Latino voters challenges any plausible Democratic victory scenario.
Recent national and key battleground state polls conducted after the debate, released last week and this week, show concerning signs for Biden. These include Trump expanding his single-digit lead over Biden and increasing public doubt about Biden’s capability to lead the country.
Following his poor debate performance in Atlanta on June 27, Biden has been trying to demonstrate his stamina and acuity for the presidency and his determination to defeat Trump.
The debate was a significant setback for Biden, who, at 81, is the oldest president in the nation’s history. His hesitant delivery and stumbling answers during the Atlanta debate caused widespread panic within the Democratic Party and led to calls from party members for him to step aside as the 2024 candidate. Since the debate, seven House Democrats have publicly urged Biden to end his re-election bid, with more Democrats in the House and Senate warning privately and publicly that he will lose to Trump in November. However, Biden has consistently reiterated his commitment to stay in the race at rallies and fundraising events.
In a letter to congressional Democrats on Monday, as they returned from the July 4th holiday recess, Biden reaffirmed his intention to stay in the race, emphasizing the need for party unity to defeat Trump. He argued that any weakening of resolve or clarity about their task only aids Trump and harms their cause.
In her analysis, Walter mentioned that many nervous down-ballot Democrats and donors hope that worsening poll numbers and a hostile press corps will prompt Biden to exit the race gracefully, though she sees this as unlikely.
The Cook Report’s shift follows another major adjustment by a nonpartisan political handicapper post-debate. Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball recently moved Michigan from leans Democrat to toss-up and Minnesota from likely Democrat to leans Democrat. Kyle Kondik, a Crystal Ball forecaster, explained that Biden’s poor debate performance necessitated reassessing some assumptions about the race, leading to Michigan and Minnesota being classified as more competitive.
