Starting in late September, Russia unveiled an expanded nuclear doctrine lowering the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons by its strategic forces. This shift was attributed to the “emergence of new sources of military threats and risks for Russia and our allies,” according to Russian officials, as Ukraine intensified cross-border drone and missile attacks. On Tuesday, President Vladimir Putin formally signed the updated doctrine into effect, just two days after President Biden authorized Ukraine to conduct long-range strikes inside Russia using U.S.-supplied missiles.
Ukraine wasted no time acting on this authorization, launching a strike on Tuesday with a U.S.-made MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) against a military installation in Russia’s Bryansk region. RBC Ukraine reported, “For the first time, Ukraine’s Defense Forces struck Russian territory with ATACMS ballistic missiles.” The targeted military facility, located near the city of Karachev, lies approximately 115 kilometers (71 miles) from the Ukrainian border. Russia claimed to have intercepted five of the six missiles fired.
The Kremlin’s updated nuclear doctrine introduces a key provision that significantly lowers the threshold for a potential nuclear response. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov explained that the doctrine allows for the use of nuclear weapons in response to “aggression using conventional weapons against [Russia] and/or the Republic of Belarus.”
“An important element of this document is that nuclear deterrence is aimed at ensuring that a potential adversary understands the inevitability of retaliation in the event of aggression against the Russian Federation or its allies,” Peskov said.
This effectively means that even conventional attacks could trigger a nuclear response if deemed a critical threat to Russia’s sovereignty or territorial integrity. According to The Associated Press, the new doctrine also stipulates that Moscow could respond with nuclear force to conventional attacks on Russia by any nation supported by a nuclear power.
When asked if Ukraine’s use of long-range U.S. missiles could provoke such a response, Peskov answered affirmatively. He pointed to the doctrine’s provision allowing for nuclear retaliation after a conventional strike that poses critical threats to Russia or Belarus.
The doctrine further declares that Western nations assisting in a major attack on Russian soil would also bear responsibility, potentially making them targets for Russian nuclear retaliation. This may explain why Peskov’s response highlighted the expanded scope of the doctrine.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov addressed the nuclear doctrine changes while attending the G20 Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Lavrov reiterated Russia’s official stance that nuclear war must not occur and argued that Moscow’s nuclear doctrine fundamentally mirrors that of the United States. Nevertheless, he warned that Russia would “react accordingly” to Ukraine’s use of U.S.-provided long-range missiles.
“I hope that they [in the West] will read this doctrine,” Lavrov said. “And not the way they read the UN Charter, seeing only what they need, but the doctrine in its entirety and interconnectedness.” He accused Western nations of “working towards escalating the Ukraine conflict.”
⚡️ They want escalation – Lavrov on Ukraine's use of ATACMS in Bryansk#G20 pic.twitter.com/I4BUFtwfSu
— RT (@RT_com) November 19, 2024
Meanwhile, the Biden administration has indicated it does not plan to respond directly to Russia’s nuclear doctrine adjustments. However, hopes remain that diplomatic efforts will prevail, particularly with the potential for more substantive peace talks under a Trump administration. Until then, the risk of further escalation remains high.
