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AtlasIntel, one of the more accurate polling firms in the 2020 presidential race, released its final state-level polling numbers for 12 key states on Monday night, painting a challenging picture for Kamala Harris.
According to the data, President Donald Trump is set to defeat Harris in all seven swing states: Arizona (+5.1), Georgia (+1.6), Michigan (+1.5), Nevada (+3.1), North Carolina (+2.1), Pennsylvania (+1.0), and Wisconsin (+0.9). In other battlegrounds, Trump leads by 8.5 points in Montana, 10.6 points in Ohio, and 20.2 points in Texas.
Meanwhile, Harris has a comfortable 5.4-point lead in Virginia and a 2-point advantage in Minnesota. In Minnesota, Trump trails Harris by 1.2 points among likely white voters and performs poorly among Asian voters, yet he is surprisingly ahead among black voters and has a double-digit lead with independents.
The poll’s margin of error is two percentage points in Pennsylvania, four points in Nevada, and three points across the other key states.
The results have some Republicans expressing cautious optimism about Trump’s chances, especially in Minnesota, the home state of Harris’s running mate, Gov. Tim Walz. The Republican Party of Minnesota pointed out that Trump “is trailing Harris by just 2 pts. In 2016, Trump lost MN by less than 2 pts. VOTE, VOTE, VOTE!”
AtlasIntel, frequently cited by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight, noted that “the contest remains open on the eve of Election Day,” and pointed to Pennsylvania as “the state most likely to decide the race, with its 19 electoral votes potentially securing the Electoral College majority for Trump.” AtlasIntel’s polling shows a “structural advantage for Trump.”
The Pennsylvania poll surveyed 1,840 respondents, revealing that with third-party options, 49.1% of likely voters would choose Trump, while 48.4% would vote for Harris. In a direct head-to-head matchup, Trump leads 49.6% to 48.6%. Meanwhile, Republican Senate candidate David McCormick trails Sen. Bob Casey (D) by about three points.
A gender divide prevails in Pennsylvania, where most men support Trump, while most women back Harris. Harris sees her strongest support among voters aged 30-44, while Trump leads by double digits among voters aged 45-64.
AtlasIntel’s findings suggest a possible Electoral College outcome of 312-226 in Trump’s favor, contingent on Pennsylvania’s 19 votes. “Since the beginning of this race, AtlasIntel has shown a structural advantage for Trump,” said AtlasIntel CEO Andrei Roman to Fox News’ Jesse Watters on Monday.
Roman noted that enthusiasm among conservative voters appears stronger in this election, with increased rural turnout for Republicans and “quite depressed turnout” in traditionally Democratic urban areas. In the suburbs, he added, “more conservative voters are showing up and sort of compensating for progressive voters.”
In its November 4 national poll, AtlasIntel showed Trump leading Harris 50%-48.8%.
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