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New Polls and RCP Averages Are a Nightmare for Kamala

October 26, 2024
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Polls are now largely coalescing in favor of President Donald Trump.

It’s clear why: Kamala Harris is struggling to present any clear plans and has a record weighed down by perceived failures. Her latest tactic, labeling Trump as “Hitler,” seems to be backfiring, with critics noting that it’s more about attacking her opponent than offering any constructive solutions. This old narrative, historically unsuccessful for Democrats, appears to be turning off more voters than it attracts.

The numbers back this up. Polls like HarrisX/Forbes, Wall Street Journal, and CNBC are reflecting this trend. Even the NYT/Siena poll is a head-to-head tie, and Trump has a slight one-point edge in the broader field. This shift has led to a tie in Real Clear Politics’ average of the national popular vote.

More recent polling continues this trend, with even polls some consider “liberal,” like TIPP and Emerson, showing ties in the national vote. CNN’s poll also has it tied at 47, while Republicans hold a three-point lead in the Generic Congressional vote.

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Great polling start for Trump this morning. TIPP and Emerson show Trump tied in national race, and up from their previous polls.

— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) October 26, 2024

???????? FINAL NATIONAL POLL: CNN/SSRS

???? Trump: 47%
???? Harris: 47%
???? Stein: 1%
???? Other: 2%

Last poll (9/22) – ???? Harris +1
——
Generic Ballot
???? GOP: 48%
???? DEM: 45%
——
Crosstabs
• Men: Trump 51-45%
• Women: Harris 50-44%
—
• Dem: Harris 93-5%
• GOP: Trump 92-7%
• Indie:… pic.twitter.com/4WvKd1ZcHJ

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 25, 2024

In the cross tabs, Trump’s support among Hispanic voters and those with incomes under $50,000 is significant, reflecting a broader coalition. Emerson shows another tie at 49.

NATIONAL POLL

2024 presidential election

Harris 49%
Trump 49%
1% someone else
1% undecidedhttps://t.co/2nJXZAmIRB pic.twitter.com/VDGpVMOOgR

— Emerson College Polling (@EmersonPolling) October 26, 2024

With this data, many believe it’s reasonable to say Trump could potentially win the popular vote. According to analysts like CNN’s Harry Enten, these numbers come from strong showings in states like California, Florida, New York, and Texas. The RCP average now has Trump up by 0.1 in the national vote.

pic.twitter.com/qI0WBZNjfh

— Nickarama (@nickaramaOG) October 26, 2024

pic.twitter.com/UXD7SaJEW0

— Nickarama (@nickaramaOG) October 26, 2024

He’s also holding a 0.9-point lead in battleground states, which could translate to 312 electoral votes. Factoring in the Electoral College’s recent bias, anything less than a +2 lead for Harris could be a win for Trump.

pic.twitter.com/FJu9G5X3yZ

— Nickarama (@nickaramaOG) October 25, 2024

So, stay optimistic and be sure to vote!


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