Polls are now largely coalescing in favor of President Donald Trump.
It’s clear why: Kamala Harris is struggling to present any clear plans and has a record weighed down by perceived failures. Her latest tactic, labeling Trump as “Hitler,” seems to be backfiring, with critics noting that it’s more about attacking her opponent than offering any constructive solutions. This old narrative, historically unsuccessful for Democrats, appears to be turning off more voters than it attracts.
The numbers back this up. Polls like HarrisX/Forbes, Wall Street Journal, and CNBC are reflecting this trend. Even the NYT/Siena poll is a head-to-head tie, and Trump has a slight one-point edge in the broader field. This shift has led to a tie in Real Clear Politics’ average of the national popular vote.
More recent polling continues this trend, with even polls some consider “liberal,” like TIPP and Emerson, showing ties in the national vote. CNN’s poll also has it tied at 47, while Republicans hold a three-point lead in the Generic Congressional vote.
In the cross tabs, Trump’s support among Hispanic voters and those with incomes under $50,000 is significant, reflecting a broader coalition. Emerson shows another tie at 49.
With this data, many believe it’s reasonable to say Trump could potentially win the popular vote. According to analysts like CNN’s Harry Enten, these numbers come from strong showings in states like California, Florida, New York, and Texas. The RCP average now has Trump up by 0.1 in the national vote.
He’s also holding a 0.9-point lead in battleground states, which could translate to 312 electoral votes. Factoring in the Electoral College’s recent bias, anything less than a +2 lead for Harris could be a win for Trump.
So, stay optimistic and be sure to vote!
