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NY Times/Siena Poll: Trump Leads in Arizona, Harris Ahead in Pennsylvania

October 12, 2024
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Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris have split two key swing states, according to a pair of New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College polls released Saturday.

In Arizona, Trump leads Harris 51% to 46%, with his advantage exceeding the poll’s margin of error. Trump has gained significant ground in Arizona, particularly with strong support from independents and Hispanic males. Voters in Arizona favored Trump on the economy by a margin of 56% to 41% and on immigration 55% to 42%.

Meanwhile, Harris holds a lead in Pennsylvania, leading Trump 50% to 47%. Her advantage is especially pronounced among voters who view abortion as the most important election issue, where she leads by 18 percentage points. However, among voters in Pennsylvania who prioritize the economy, Trump leads 54% to 43%, and on immigration, 55% to 42%.

The NY Times/Siena College poll surveyed 857 likely voters in Pennsylvania from October 7 to 10, with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points. In Arizona, the poll surveyed 808 voters from October 7 to 10, with a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points.

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