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According to the latest RealClearPolitics national average, Kamala Harris holds a 1.8-point lead. While Democrats might be excited about this, they really shouldn’t be. Harris is currently trailing behind both Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton at the same stage in the 2020 and 2016 elections.
But let’s focus on Nate Silver’s latest forecast. In the previous one I discussed, from August 31, Donald Trump had a 53.1% chance of winning the Electoral College, with Harris at 46.6%. This was due to Trump’s lead in key swing states, with a 52-48% advantage in the critical state of Pennsylvania.
In Silver’s latest forecast from Tuesday, Trump’s chances of winning have risen to 56.7%, the highest since July 31, while Harris’s chances have dropped to 43.0%. Trump has strengthened his position in key swing states, holding a 57-43% lead in Pennsylvania, 64-36% in Georgia, 67-33% in Arizona, 70-30% in North Carolina, and 57-43% in Nevada. Harris’s best odds are in Michigan and Wisconsin, where her chances stand at 51-49% and 53-47%, respectively.
What’s particularly notable about this latest update is that Trump’s odds of winning the Electoral College are still climbing, despite Silver removing ActiVote polls from his model after they recently showed a boost for Trump.
Naturally, Silver tries to offer some reassurance to the left: “If Kamala Harris is able to hold her current numbers, she’ll eventually begin to rise in the forecast again as the convention bounce adjustment gradually wears off,” he writes.
He’s also been transparent about the fact that recent state polling isn’t looking great for Harris.
So, while Harris still holds a slight lead in national polls, these averages only give a snapshot of the current state of the race. It’s significant that Silver’s forecast now shows Trump as the favorite — especially considering Silver’s history of projections favoring Democratic candidates. While Harris initially led, her odds have slipped following a lackluster convention bounce and poor performance in Pennsylvania.
Additionally, RFK Jr.’s endorsement of Trump may have further weakened her chances. Silver notes that the chaotic news cycle has made this election particularly difficult to predict, with polling trends now shifting back toward Trump. And with the debate next week, things are about to get even more interesting.
