The initial excitement surrounding Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee has already begun to wane, and it’s likely causing concern among Democrats. The 2024 election took an unexpected turn in late July when President Joe Biden suddenly dropped his re-election bid, a move many believe was influenced by key Democratic figures like Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi. Former President Donald Trump has gone so far as to describe Biden’s withdrawal as a “coup.”
Regardless of the underlying reasons, Harris initially seemed to gain some momentum simply by not being Joe Biden. Her candidacy brought a surge of enthusiasm, bolstered by celebrity endorsements, turning what had appeared to be a one-sided Trump-Biden race into a much closer contest between Trump and Harris. Recent polling by Real Clear Politics even showed Harris with a narrow 1.6 percent lead over Trump—a significant improvement over Biden’s numbers.
However, the initial excitement has faded just days after the Democratic National Convention. On Thursday, polling expert Nate Silver shared some sobering news for Democrats in his newsletter, stating, “[T]his wasn’t a good day for Kamala Harris in our model, as Donald Trump is the slight favorite for the first time since August 3.” Silver and fellow researcher Eli McKown-Dawson pointed to Harris’s struggles in Pennsylvania as a key factor in Trump’s resurgence.
While this shift is certainly good news for Trump, Silver and Dawson cautioned against reading too much into it just yet, noting that the race remains highly competitive. They also highlighted potential vulnerabilities in Harris’s campaign, stating, “the model has the Electoral College/popular vote gap opening up again, a concern for Harris all along.”
In summary, while the race is still very much up in the air, the recent data underscores the challenges Harris faces and serves as a reminder that media-driven momentum has its limits. Many Americans, not swayed by media hype, are looking for peace, quiet, and prosperity—qualities they see in Trump, despite the efforts of the media, celebrities, or even Barack Obama to sway them otherwise. Nate Silver’s latest analysis reflects this reality.
