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In a clear sign of the Montana Senate race’s significance, former President Donald Trump returned to Big Sky Country for the first time in six years, holding a rally in Bozeman on August 9. Trump aimed to rally support for Republican candidate Tim Sheehy, who is challenging longtime Senator Jon Tester (D-Mont.).
This Senate race has garnered national attention due to its potential to shift control of the Senate to the Republicans. While the GOP holds a majority in the House, many of their proposals have stalled in the Democrat-controlled Senate. Tester remains the only Democrat in a high office in Montana, a state that once leaned purple—a blend of Republican red and Democrat blue—but has trended reliably red during the Trump era.
Addressing an audience that packed the 8,455-seat Brick Breeden Fieldhouse at Montana State University, Trump emphasized the importance of Sheehy’s victory for both the state and the country. “For years, Tester has been telling Montana that he’s a moderate,” Trump said, but noted that Tester’s voting record aligns with policies Trump blames for the border crisis. In 2019, Tester opposed the construction of the U.S.–Mexico border wall, criticizing the “phony ‘emergency declaration’” as an “end-run around Congress” to reallocate military funds for the wall.
Sheehy urged the crowd, “You have a very important job to do, because if Donald Trump gets to the White House and doesn’t have a Senate, he’s not going to get things done.” The crowd erupted in cheers when Sheehy pledged to deliver on what he heard during his 56-county tour across Montana: “They want common sense back. They want common-sense government. And what does ‘common sense’ mean to Montanans? They want a secure border, safe streets, cheap gas. Cops are good, criminals are bad. Boys are boys, girls are girls.”
Trump’s journey to the Montana rally faced a hiccup when his private jet, “Trump Force One,” had to divert to Billings due to a hydraulic fluid leak. Trump then took another private plane to reach Bozeman.
Meanwhile, his Democratic rivals, Vice President Kamala Harris and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, campaigned in Arizona, a key battleground state in the presidential race. Montana, by contrast, is considered solidly in Trump’s camp. This led some to question why Trump chose to visit Montana instead of a swing state, given that he won Montana in his previous two presidential campaigns and currently holds a 15-point lead over Harris, according to FiveThirtyEight.com.
Taking the stage nearly 90 minutes behind schedule, Trump noted his extensive travels across Montana that day and remarked, “I’ve gotta like Tim Sheehy a lot to be here.” He then told Sheehy, “You’d better win.”
Tester currently has a substantial fundraising lead over Sheehy, though Sheehy has been slightly ahead in most polls. According to the Federal Election Commission, Tester has raised $39 million compared to Sheehy’s $14 million.
In polling, Sheehy holds a narrow 2-point lead over Tester, as reported by Emerson College’s August 5–6 poll. Among five prior polls, Sheehy led in three, with margins ranging from 3 to 6 percent, while two early June polls showed the race was tied, according to FiveThirtyEight. These early polls were conducted shortly after Tester and Sheehy secured their respective party nominations. Sheehy won a three-way Republican primary with nearly 140,000 votes, representing 74 percent of the ballots cast, while Tester received just over 104,000 votes, handily defeating his opponent who garnered only 3 percent of the vote.
Although Trump has attended fundraisers in Montana recently, his last rallies in the state took place in 2018, during his presidency. At that time, he visited Belgrade, Missoula, Billings, and Great Falls.
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