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Nearly two-thirds of Democrats believe President Joe Biden should step aside from the presidential race and allow another candidate to be nominated, according to a new poll. This finding challenges his claim that average Democrats still support him, despite some prominent figures turning against him. The survey, conducted by the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, comes two weeks after Biden’s poor debate performance, showing that only about 3 in 10 Democrats are highly confident in his mental capability to serve effectively as president, down from 40% in February.
These results highlight the difficulties the 81-year-old president faces as he tries to quell calls from within his party to withdraw and convince Democrats he is the best candidate to defeat Donald Trump. The poll was mostly conducted before an assassination attempt on Trump at a Pennsylvania rally, and it’s uncertain if the incident affected views of Biden, as early post-incident responses showed no significant change in his prospects.
Vice President Kamala Harris, also under scrutiny, has a favorability rating similar to Biden’s, but slightly fewer people have an unfavorable opinion of her. The poll suggests that Black Democrats are among Biden’s strongest supporters, with about half believing he should continue running, compared to roughly 3 in 10 white and Hispanic Democrats. Overall, 7 in 10 Americans think Biden should step aside, with Democrats only slightly less likely than Republicans and independents to hold this view.
Some Democrats, like 27-year-old Andrew Holcomb from Denver, express concerns about Biden’s age, while others, like 50-year-old Janie Stapleton from Mississippi, believe he is the best candidate for president. Additionally, 6 in 10 Americans want Trump to withdraw, though few Republicans agree. Younger Democrats, particularly those under 45, are more likely to want Biden to drop out and express dissatisfaction with him.
Despite the Biden campaign’s optimistic outlook before the debate, his performance only deepened dissatisfaction, with about half of Democrats now expressing discontent, up from about 4 in 10 in June. Conversely, most Republicans were satisfied with Trump after the debate. Post-assassination attempt data is insufficient to determine any rallying effect around Trump.
David Parrott, a 58-year-old Democrat from Tennessee, voiced concerns about Biden’s ability to serve another term due to his age. The ongoing political turmoil has left Americans more likely to believe Trump is capable of winning the 2024 election compared to Biden, with 42% favoring Trump and 18% favoring Biden. About a quarter view both as equally capable of winning.
Even among Democrats, confidence in Biden’s ability to win is low, with only a third believing he is more capable than Trump. In contrast, Republicans are confident in Trump’s prospects. Trump is also seen as better at handling crises, while opinions are divided on which candidate has a better vision for the country.
Despite the challenges, Biden remains hopeful, stating that many voters haven’t yet focused on the campaign and that it’s still early. The poll also showed that 40% of adults view Biden as more honest than Trump, with only about 2 in 10 believing the opposite.
The poll indicates that most Democrats think Vice President Harris would make a good president, though her favorability ratings are mixed. Meanwhile, Trump’s running mate, freshman Sen. JD Vance, remains largely unknown to most Americans. The survey was conducted with 1,253 adults from July 11-15, 2024, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
