New polls from the New York Times, Siena College, and the Philadelphia Inquirer reveal that in five of the six crucial battleground states where President Biden narrowly defeated former President Trump four years ago, Trump now holds the lead. Factors such as economic discontent and the Israeli-Hamas conflict, coupled with declining support for Biden among younger, Black, and Hispanic voters, pose challenges to Biden’s Democratic coalition.
Despite Biden’s narrow victories in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in 2020, the latest polls show Trump leading among registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, with Biden slightly ahead in Wisconsin. Among likely voters, the race is even closer, with Trump leading in five states and Biden in one.
Third-party and independent candidates, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr., garner around 10% support across these states, drawing evenly from both Biden and Trump.
These surveys, conducted from April 28 to May 9, coincide with Trump’s historic criminal trial and a significant ad campaign by the Biden camp, but they indicate little impact on voter sentiment. Dissatisfaction with the political and economic systems is evident, with most voters calling for major changes.
While Trump makes gains among voters who backed Biden in 2020, Biden maintains support among older and White voters, who prioritize democracy as their main concern.
However, the economy remains a sticking point for Biden, despite positive indicators such as job growth and a booming stock market. Abortion also presents a challenge for Trump, as a majority of voters support its legality.
The polls surveyed over 4,000 voters across the six states, with a margin of error ranging from plus or minus 1.8 to 4.6 percentage points.
