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In the crucial swing state of Michigan, the most recent CNN Poll reveals that former President Donald Trump holds a substantial double-digit advantage over President Joe Biden. The nationwide survey indicates Trump’s lead over Biden at eight points, with Trump securing 39 percent compared to Biden’s 31 percent, accounting for independent candidates in the race. However, this margin widens significantly in individual states, notably in Michigan, where Trump commands a ten-point lead, with 50 percent support compared to Biden’s 40 percent. Additionally, ten percent of respondents expressed an unwillingness to support either candidate.
The poll also highlights Trump’s lead in Georgia, where he maintains a five-point advantage over Biden, polling at 49 percent versus Biden’s 44 percent.
According to CNN:
Trump’s margin over Biden in the hypothetical matchup is significantly boosted by support from voters who say they did not cast a ballot in 2020, with these voters breaking in Trump’s favor by 26 points in Georgia and 40 points in Michigan. Those who report having voted in 2020 say they broke for Biden over Trump in that election, but as of now, they tilt in Trump’s favor for 2024 in both states, with Biden holding on to fewer of his 2020 backers than does Trump.
For a broader context, Trump secured victory in Michigan in 2016 by a narrow margin of 0.3 percent. However, in 2020, he experienced a shift in fortunes, losing the state by a margin of 2.8 percent.
???????? 2024 GE: CNN/SSRS
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) December 11, 2023
MICHIGAN
Trump: 50% (+10)
Biden: 40%
—
Trump: 39% (+8)
Biden: 31%
RFK Jr: 20%
West: 6%
—
GEORGIA
Trump: 49% (+5)
Biden: 44%
—
Trump: 42% (+8)
Biden: 34%
RFK Jr: 15%
West: 6%
—
1,197 RV (MI) | 1,068 RV (GA) | 11/29-12/7 https://t.co/mUmHTAGlC8 pic.twitter.com/rrwzQc2tdT
The Michigan poll was conducted from November 29 to December 6, encompassing responses from 1,197 registered voters. Simultaneously, the Georgia poll gathered opinions from November 30 to December 7, involving 1,068 registered voters. Notably, Trump’s lead in Michigan exceeds the survey’s margin of error, which is +/- 3.4 percent, and similarly surpasses Georgia’s margin of error, set at +/- 3.3 percent.
This trend aligns with findings from several other surveys indicating Trump’s lead over Biden in pivotal swing states. A November release of a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll, for instance, portrayed Trump leading in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, with a tie in Michigan:
???????? 2024 GE: Bloomberg/Morning Consult
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) November 9, 2023
GEORGIA
Trump 48% (+7)
Biden 41%
ARIZONA
Trump 46% (+4)
Biden 42%
.
PENNSYLVANIA
Trump 47% (+3)
Biden 44%
.
NEVADA
Trump 46% (+3)
Biden 43%
.
WISCONSIN
Trump 47% (+1)
Biden 46%
.
NORTH CAROLINA
Trump 48% (+9)
Biden 39%
.
MICHIGAN
Biden… pic.twitter.com/BXZfA7XDdp
Likewise, in the same month, a poll conducted by The New York Times/Siena demonstrated Trump’s advantage over Biden in Nevada, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Michigan. Notably, the Michigan results from this particular survey indicated a five-point lead for Trump over Biden.
