Republican Presidential Contenders Who Are Unlikely to Meet the Criteria for the Second Debate

The Republican presidential debate landscape is undergoing significant changes. In the previous month, eight candidates participated, but as the date for the second debate on September 27 approaches, two candidates have yet to receive invitations.

Candidates who are uncertain about their participation are actively attempting to influence the eligibility criteria before any official announcements.

The campaign manager for Senator Tim Scott recently reached out to the Republican National Committee (RNC), proposing a revision of the criteria. Without these changes, Senator Scott may not be included in the third debate, and a similar fate could be in store for former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie.

The RNC has not released specific details about the third debate, which may be imminent. This delay suggests the RNC’s efforts to remain impartial in a primary field where former President Donald Trump holds sway.

Trump, who leads the pack, opted out of the first debate and has shown little interest in the second. The RNC may be strategizing to entice him with a more favorable setting for the third debate.

For candidates trailing behind Trump, their presence on the debate stage is crucial. Their primary challenge is meeting the RNC’s national polling threshold. Televised debates, such as the one that garnered millions of viewers, are especially important for candidates like Scott and Christie. While they lag in national polls, they have managed to gain some traction in states with early primaries and caucuses.

North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum and former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson, both of whom participated in the first debate, have yet to qualify for the upcoming debates.

The RNC’s criteria for the first debate included a modest 1 percent national polling requirement. For the second debate, candidates must achieve 3 percent in two national polls or a combination of one national poll and two early-state polls.

Scott’s campaign is urging the RNC to reconsider the national polling requirement. Scott emphasizes that the primary process isn’t solely national and believes that candidates who perform well in early-state polls should be given priority.

The RNC has confirmed Miami as the venue for the third debate, but specifics like the date and qualifying criteria are still undisclosed. Most speculate that it will be scheduled for early November.

Based on current data, Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy, Mike Pence, and Nikki Haley are likely to meet any polling requirements for the third debate. However, Pence might face challenges due to the RNC’s donor requirement, as his fundraising efforts have been less robust than other candidates with similar polling numbers.

Both Hutchinson and Burgum face the task of securing spots for the second debate. While Burgum has achieved some success in an Iowa survey, he needs to replicate this in national or early-state polls. Hutchinson is approaching the donor threshold and must meet specific polling criteria to secure his place on the stage.