Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance
Silver surged 6% on Wednesday morning, reaching $91 an ounce. Whether this signals a short squeeze or a peak is irrelevant; as the saying goes, “the sh*t hath hitteth the faneth.”
About a week ago, during a Twitter Spaces session with Peter Schiff, I expressed my belief that the rally in silver and gold was far from over. I reiterated this sentiment while discussing sound money and markets with Larry Lepard, who shared his 2026 predictions for Bitcoin, gold, silver, and stocks.
For years, I’ve maintained on my blog and podcast that a “blow-off valve” would eventually release the pressure built up from excessive money printing within the monetary system. I first documented this prediction in May 2023, stating:
“The most likely candidates to ‘blow off’ are precious metals, in my opinion (and maybe even bitcoin).”
I have consistently suggested that the repercussions of money printing would manifest in the prices of gold and silver. The fallout from such actions has to be absorbed somewhere, and aside from precious metals, it typically results in rising consumer prices and a diminished quality of life for low- and middle-class Americans.
That valve has now burst. So what are my next steps? Should I take profits? Here’s my perspective.
Let’s quickly explore the bull and bear cases for silver and gold. Despite being long-term bullish on both, it’s important to consider both sides. The bull case for silver can be articulated through several lenses.
Firstly, we might be witnessing an unprecedented situation, potentially leading to a historic short squeeze that many have speculated about. The market has far more ounces of paper silver than actual physical silver, which can lead to significant market distortions. The current scenario is a prime example of this. The ceiling of this movement is uncertain.
In an insightful interview, Andy Schectman discussed the potential for silver to reach $200, suggesting that forced selling could appear as a market peak. However, he argued that it merely acts as a circuit breaker, temporarily disrupting the squeeze dynamics while transferring exposure from weaker hands to more stable ones.
Additionally, historical trends indicate that silver’s price movements from breakout to peak have been around 10x in the past. Given that this breakout started at approximately $30 an ounce, we have only reached about 3x thus far. If this trend continues, it could support a future price of $150 or even $200 for silver. Moreover, it’s worth noting that silver’s inflation-adjusted all-time high is closer to $140/oz.
On the other hand, regarding the bear case for metals, I have observed some red flags. For my complete analysis and what I plan to do with my metals position, please refer to my full note.
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