Former President Donald Trump isn’t just focused on winning back the presidency; to truly push his agenda, he’ll need solid majorities in both houses of Congress. This means securing victories in multiple contested Senate races.
We’ve covered five of the 10 Senate races that could determine whether a second Trump administration will be able to advance its MAGA agenda with ease or face a need for compromise. For those who missed the first part, click here. Now, here’s a closer look at the remaining key races that could shape America’s legislative future under a potential Trump 47 administration.
Ohio
The Ohio Senate race, where Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is defending his seat, is tightening. Brown’s opponent, Bernie Moreno, was a candidate in the 2022 GOP primary eventually won by J.D. Vance. This time, Moreno has been leading the GOP field, and polls from RealClearPolitics show Brown’s once-solid lead shrinking to within the margin of error as of October, with some polls showing Moreno ahead by a narrow margin.
Trump’s endorsement for Moreno last December remains strong. “Bernie Moreno, a highly respected businessman from the GREAT State of Ohio, is exactly the type of MAGA fighter that we need in the United States Senate,” Trump stated. Republicans have also been outspending Democrats on ads, investing roughly $188.4 million compared to the Democrats’ $159.7 million. However, a debate agreement remains elusive, a factor that could impact Moreno’s momentum against Brown, a longtime incumbent since 2006.
West Virginia
In West Virginia, the real question isn’t if the GOP will claim the seat but by how much. Gov. Jim Justice, the GOP nominee, is leading substantially against Democrat Glenn Elliott. The August West Virginia MetroNews poll shows Justice with a 62% to 28% lead, and another poll from June reflects a similar gap.
West Virginia’s race is a key indicator of the Democrats’ struggles in Middle America, particularly in energy-producing states. Without an incumbent like Joe Manchin, the party’s position in states like Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin may face similar challenges. Additionally, West Virginia could determine if the Senate remains tied or if Trump, if re-elected, would need every RINO on board to push his agenda.
Michigan
Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow’s retirement has turned Michigan into a battleground, with Rep. Elissa Slotkin, a rising star in the Democratic Party, facing Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers. Slotkin currently leads in RealClearPolitics’ aggregate by 3%, but Rogers has appealed to Michigan’s working class, questioning the impact of the Biden-Harris administration’s policies on voters’ financial situations. He stated, “Are you better off than you were four years ago?”
Slotkin, focusing on gun control and EV incentives, argues that Rogers and other Republicans resist critical regulations out of fear of losing elections, saying, “They’re scared because they don’t want to lose their election, and it’s terrible.” Rogers, however, frames his stance on mandates as necessary for economic control, and the race remains tight as the candidates vie for Michigan’s middle-ground voters.
Montana
In Montana, GOP candidate Tim Sheehy has taken a polling lead over Democratic Sen. Jon Tester, who’s faced tough criticism for his support of the national Democratic agenda. Sheehy has targeted Tester’s stance on border policies, referring to his record as inconsistent, to which Tester responded, “They’re full of s***.”
Since August, FiveThirtyEight’s aggregated polls show Sheehy leading by 5.4%, while RealClearPolitics has him up by 7%. While Democrats argue Tester has historically won tight races, the state’s trending support for Trump — leading by an even higher margin over Harris than over Biden in 2020 — suggests Tester may face a significant challenge.
Nebraska
The Nebraska Senate race between Republican Sen. Deb Fischer and “nonpartisan” candidate Dan Osborn, a Navy veteran and union leader, has unexpectedly become competitive. Osborn claims frustration with partisanship and promises not to caucus with either party, though Democrats’ absence in the race hints at his leanings.
Polls, mostly sponsored by the campaigns, show a narrow lead with Fischer slightly ahead. As Osborn’s grassroots movement gains momentum, the GOP remains cautious, with Fischer’s campaign spokesman, Derek Oden, noting, “We still have work to do, and we’re running hard, but this is a good sign.”
The 10 races covered here could shift America’s direction. Eight seats currently belong to Democrats, and two are held by Republicans, with the GOP gaining momentum. Trump’s re-election campaign may depend on whether he can turn these close Senate races in his favor to pursue his MAGA vision.
Wisconsin
Businessman Eric Hovde has recently closed in on incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin’s lead in Wisconsin, with RealClearPolitics showing Baldwin’s once-secure lead narrowing. Baldwin’s lead dropped to just two points, with some polls even placing Hovde ahead. A Trafalgar Group poll recently showed Hovde leading Baldwin by 48.5% to 48.1%.
Trump’s performance in Wisconsin, closely mirroring Hovde’s, signals the importance of GOP turnout in this swing state, making it a top target for Republicans looking to secure the Senate.
Nevada
In Nevada, Sen. Jackie Rosen faces Republican Sam Brown in a race that’s quickly tightening. Once leading by double digits, Rosen now holds a mere 5.4% lead in RealClearPolitics’ aggregate, with GOP ad spending ramping up as early voting appears to favor Republicans.
Brown accused Rosen of prioritizing “green energy over policies that would lower the cost of living,” emphasizing Nevada’s “economic malaise.” With a narrowing margin and a GOP turnout surge, Brown may yet pull off an upset.
Arizona
Rep. Ruben Gallego currently leads Kari Lake by 6.1 points, yet Lake’s prospects remain viable. A New York Times/Siena College poll indicates undecided Trump supporters may tilt the race in Lake’s favor if they break her way. Trump’s lead in Arizona, coupled with his recent polling uptick, suggests a potential shift toward Lake in these final weeks.
Texas
Sen. Ted Cruz’s re-election in Texas faces an unexpected challenge from Rep. Colin Allred, who’s running as a moderate Democrat. Allred has kept within the margin of error in recent polls, but Cruz remains favored, according to RealClearPolitics’ polling aggregate. With increased funding and momentum, Allred could give Cruz a tight race.
Pennsylvania
Republican Dave McCormick, seen as a strong challenger after narrowly missing the GOP nomination in 2022, now has Trump’s endorsement as he takes on Sen. John Fetterman. The race has tightened, with McCormick recently leading in the polls.
These 10 Senate races may decide whether Trump, if re-elected, can move forward with his MAGA agenda or will face significant compromise.
